U.S. forecasters say an El Niño is increasingly likely to form in the Pacific by September, a development that could push global temperatures even higher and rattle crop production worldwide in the months ahead.
Scientists at the Climate Prediction Center project a 62% chance that an ocean-warming El Niño will emerge during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, with the odds rising even further as fall approaches. If it develops, the powerful climate pattern could pile additional heat onto a planet already warming rapidly from human-driven climate change, amplifying extreme weather and raising fresh concerns for ecosystems, agriculture, and communities around the world.
The influence of El Niño can stretch across the globe—and linger for a year or longer—reshaping weather patterns in dramatic ways. As drought tightens its grip on countries such as Australia, Indonesia, and South Africa, the risk of destructive wildfires often climbs, according to Nat Johnson of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the United States, the climate pattern is typically linked to soaking rains across the Southeast and unusually warm temperatures in many northern states—conditions that can reshape everything from agriculture to daily life.
Signals pointing to a developing El Niño are “unusually strong,” according to Nat Johnson. Still, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say there’s far less certainty about how powerful the event might become, as key climate models are sending mixed and sometimes conflicting signals—leaving scientists closely watching the Pacific for what could unfold next.
“We’re not ruling out the possibility that this becomes a really strong event,” Johnson said. “It’s just too early to be confident of this assessment.”
Past El Niño events have unleashed a volatile mix of torrential rains and punishing drought, leaving a deep mark on global agriculture. The climate pattern has been tied to damaged coffee harvests in Vietnam, struggling soybean crops in Brazil, and mounting challenges for cocoa growers across Africa—a ripple effect that can tighten global supplies and send commodity markets on edge.
As global seas continue to warm, ocean fisheries can struggle and fragile coral reefs face a higher risk of damaging bleaching events. The arrival of El Niño also tends to put a lid on the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. But the story shifts across the Pacific Ocean: in its eastern waters, the same climate pattern can supercharge storm activity, setting the stage for a far more turbulent season.
Some scientists warn that the next El Niño could be unusually powerful, fueled by rising ocean temperatures in the region of the Pacific Ocean where the climate pattern—and its cooler counterpart, La Niña—takes shape. But forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are more cautious. According to Nat Johnson, current projections put the odds of a strong El Niño at roughly one in three by the end of 2026, leaving scientists closely watching whether the developing system could trigger more dramatic global impacts.
El Niño is one phase of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a recurring pattern of ocean warming and cooling that can reshape weather around the world. In 2025, the system slipped into a weak La Niña phase, helping drive repeated blasts of Arctic cold through the winter and bringing above-average snowfall to parts of the United States. The same climate signal was also linked to deadly flooding across Southern Africa, underscoring how powerfully the cycle can influence global weather.
Meanwhile, the Western United States has been sweltering under record-breaking warmth, while unusually scarce snowfall is raising fresh concerns about the region’s already strained water supplies as summer approaches—a troubling signal for reservoirs, agriculture, and communities that depend on melting mountain snow to get through the hottest months of the year.
