Describes how removing the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate would affect health insurance premiums and the overall numbered of insured.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) uses a "carrot-and-stick" approach to encourage Americans to obtain health insurance. The "carrot" consists of subsidies in the form of tax credits that help low- and middle-income individuals buy coverage in the individual health insurance marketplaces (where consumers buy directly from insurers rather than through an employer). The "stick" is the individual mandate, which requires most individuals either to have health insurance coverage or pay a fine.
The individual mandate, which took effect on January 1, 2014, is a requirement of the ACA that most citizens and legal residents of the United States have health insurance. People who do not have health insurance must obtain it or pay a penalty.
The individual mandate remains one of the ACA's most politically charged provisions. It survived a Supreme Court challenge in 2012, when the Court ruled that it was a tax and therefore constitutional. However, numerous policy alternatives have proposed to amend or abolish the individual mandate, and some commentators have claimed that the mandate is unnecessary to advance the ACA's goal of near-universal health coverage. (See Avik Roy, Transcending Obamacare: A Patient-Centered Plan for Near-Universal Coverage and Permanent Fiscal Solvency, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, 2014, for an example of the former, and Peter Ubel, "Do the Obamacare Insurance Subsidies Make the Individual Mandate Unnecessary?" Forbes, March 25, 2013, for an example of the latter.)
The mandate is enforced via the income tax. In 2015, for the first time, Americans will feel the mandate's effects during tax season. Adults without insurance will pay the greater of $95 or 1 percent of their income above the tax-filing threshold ($13,050 for a head of household in 2014), but no more than the lowest-priced bronze option in the marketplaces. By 2016, the annual fine will increase to the greater of $695 or 2.5 percent of income above the tax-filing threshold, also no more than the cost of the lowest-priced bronze option in the marketplaces.
To address this question, a RAND team used the RAND COMPARE microsimulation model to estimate the effect of eliminating the individual mandate on the number of insured and premium prices in the individual market, a-suming that other provisions of the ACA remain unchanged.