Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is neck and neck with progressive frontrunner Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race — if Republican Curtis Sliwa bows out, according to a striking new poll.
The latest Gotham Polling and city AARP survey reveals a razor-thin race: 44.6% of New Yorkers would vote for Mamdani if Sliwa bowed out, while 40.7% would throw their support behind Cuomo — a 4-point gap that keeps him well within striking range.
If all three stay in the running, Mamdani crushes the competition with 43.2% support — far ahead of Cuomo at 28.9% and Sliwa at 19.4%, according to the poll.
A fresh Gotham/AARP poll shows Andrew Cuomo might actually stand a chance at City Hall — if Curtis Sliwa bows out, which he’s made clear he won’t. Emmy Park
But with 78% of undecided voters aged 50 and up, the poll suggests Cuomo could gain a crucial edge — while younger New Yorkers keep lining up behind Mamdani.
“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds,” said Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics. “If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”
The poll is based on 2021 general election demographics, when fewer than 40% of voters were under 50. But that model may underestimate Mamdani’s support this November, as his campaign has registered tens of thousands of new young voters — potentially creating an even 50-50 split in turnout between younger and older New Yorkers.
Sliwa and Cuomo, now running as an independent after falling to Mamdani in the Democratic primary, have both vowed to stay in the City Hall race no matter what.
In a two-day survey of 1,040 likely voters last week, Gotham pollsters found one issue uniting New Yorkers of all ages — the soaring cost of living.
Zohran Mamdani holds the lead in the mayoral polls — but a new survey warns his edge could vanish if Curtis Sliwa bows out. Kevin C Downs
Andrew Cuomo calls Curtis Sliwa a “spoiler” in the mayoral race and pushes him to quit.. Kevin C Downs
According to the poll, 63.6% of voters said it was their main issue, with public safety coming in at 48.6% and housing affordability at 38.9%.
About 43% of those surveyed identify as very or somewhat liberal, giving Mamdani a solid edge, compared with just over 23% who lean somewhat or very conservative.
At 33, Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani stunned New York City by beating Cuomo and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams in the June Democratic primary — Adams has since exited the race.
A proud socialist and practicing Muslim, he was born in Uganda and later settled in the Big Apple.
Cuomo, Sliwa, and Mamdani faced off at the first of two NYC mayoral debates last week. via REUTERS
Mamdani’s left-leaning stance on numerous issues has raised alarm among city political insiders and the Jewish community, fueled by his criticism of Israel and refusal to denounce Hamas.
At last week’s first mayoral debate, 67-year-old former governor and HUD secretary Cuomo slammed Mamdani for his inexperience.
On Sunday, October 19, 2025, Zohran Mamdani was seen walking through Maimonides Park .Aristide Economopoulos
On Sunday, he again called Sliwa a “spoiler” and urged him to quit the race.
“The problem is Curtis Sliwa is a spoiler in the race,” the Democratic ex-governor said on WABC 770 AM’s the “The Cats Roundtable” radio show. “A vote for Curtis Sliwa is really a vote for Mamdani.”
Andrew Cuomo says his path to defeating Zohran Mamdani hinges on GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa quitting the race. Robert Miller
During last week’s debate, 71-year-old Sliwa — founder of the Guardian Angels, former radio pundit, and former mayoral contender — turned the tables, declaring that Cuomo should quit the race.
The Gotham/AARP poll suggests it may be up to the city’s more seasoned voters to decide the race.
“Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. “These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”
