President Trump on Friday threatened to hit all Chinese imports with a 100% tariff starting Nov. 1—or even sooner—reigniting fears of a global economic shock.
The president voiced frustration over China’s new export limits on rare earth elements, saying on social media there’s “no real reason” to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during his upcoming visit to South Korea.
Trump later told reporters he had not canceled his meeting. “But I don’t know that we’re going to have it,” he said during an Oval Office appearance on another subject. “I’m going to be there regardless, so I would assume we might have it.”
Trump hinted there’s still room to dial back his steep new tariff threat, saying, “We’re going to have to see what happens. That’s why I made it Nov. 1,”
China’s new restrictions
On Thursday, China tightened control over rare earth minerals, requiring foreign companies to obtain special approval before shipping the metals abroad. Beijing also imposed new permit rules on the export of technologies used in mining, smelting, and recycling rare earths — and said any applications tied to military use would be flatly denied.
On social media, Trump called China’s new export controls “shocking” and “out of the blue,” accusing Beijing of growing “very hostile” and holding the world “captive” by limiting access to the metals and magnets used in electronics, semiconductors, jet engines, and other key technologies.
In a post, Trump announced that starting Nov. 1, 2025 — or sooner if China takes further action — the United States will slap a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, on top of existing duties. He added that Washington would hit back with its own export controls on “any and all critical software” made by American firms.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Associated Press.
Trump has a well-worn playbook — and threats are one of his favorite moves
The S&P 500 fell 2.7% amid concerns over rising tensions between the world’s largest economies. It marked the market’s worst day since April, when the president last floated import taxes of this magnitude. The decline came before the president outlined the specifics of his latest threat.
Trump’s latest tariff threat could reignite the global trade war. Adding new import taxes to the 30% already on Chinese goods risks collapsing U.S.-China trade and slowing growth around the world.
While Trump’s language was firm, he has a well-known history of retreating from threats. Earlier this year, some investors even started what the Financial Times dubbed the “TACO” trade — short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
Tariffs of this magnitude could intensify the president’s political challenges, potentially driving up inflation at a time when the job market is showing signs of fragility and the effects of a government shutdown are piling up alongside federal worker layoffs.
The U.S. and China have been maneuvering for leverage in trade talks ever since the import taxes earlier this year sparked a trade war. While both sides agreed to roll back some tariffs following negotiations in Switzerland and the U.K., tensions persist as China continues to limit America’s access to rare earths — critical, hard-to-mine materials used across a wide range of U.S. technologies.
Export licenses from China’s previous round of rare earth controls are already piled up, and the latest announcements “add further complexity to the global supply chain of rare earth elements,” the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China warned.
Tensions in the U.S.-China trade war aren’t limited to tariffs: disputes over advanced computer chips, American soybean sales, and a series of tit-for-tat port fees - kicking in Tuesday - continue to keep the relationship on edge.
Experts believe there’s still a window to de-escalate the situation
Trump hasn’t officially canceled his meeting with Xi, but hinted it may not happen during his Asia trip at the end of the month. The trip is set to include Malaysia for the ASEAN summit, Japan, and South Korea, where the Xi meeting had been planned ahead of the APEC summit.
Sun Yun, director of the Stimson Center’s China program, described Beijing’s move as a response to U.S. sanctions on Chinese companies and upcoming port fees on China-related vessels. Yet she emphasized that a path to de-escalation remains, keeping the leaders’ meeting possible. “It is a disproportional reaction,” Sun said. “Beijing feels that de-escalation will have to be mutual as well. There is room for maneuver, especially on the implementation.”
China wields major leverage in the rare earths market, controlling 70% of mining and 93% of permanent magnet production, which are essential for both high-tech products and military applications, said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at CSIS in Washington, D.C.
“These restrictions undermine our ability to develop our industrial base at a time when we need to. And then second, it’s a powerful negotiating tool,” she said.
Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that Trump’s post could signal “mark the beginning of the end of the tariff truce” that had previously eased taxes on both sides.
“Mutually assured disruption between the two sides is no longer a metaphor,” Singleton said. “Both sides are reaching for their economic weapons at the same time, and neither seems willing to back down.”
