The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) successfully forecast Hurricane Erick’s dramatic intensification as it neared the Pacific coast of Mexico.
Now, the critical tools that supported that forecast are set to disappear by the end of this month — and with no clear replacement in sight, forecasters may be left without vital resources as the Atlantic heads into what’s expected to be an exceptionally active hurricane season.
The US Navy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have announced that, effective June 30, they will no longer receive or disseminate readings from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, as stated in a recent service notice.
One of the program’s most crucial applications is enabling forecasters to accurately predict rapid storm intensification — defined as an increase in maximum wind speeds of at least 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour within a 24-hour window. Sudden strengthening of initially weak storms poses significant risks to coastal communities and creates additional challenges for emergency managers tasked with efficiently deploying limited resources.
In recent years, rapid intensification has become increasingly common among storms, exemplified by last year’s Hurricane Milton. This storm escalated from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale in just over 24 hours. Although Milton weakened to a Category 3 by the time it made landfall last October, other storms have intensified right up until impact. Notably, last year’s deadly Hurricane John unleashed nearly 57 inches (145 centimeters) of rainfall in parts of Mexico. Research indicates that, as global temperatures continue to rise, tropical systems are increasingly likely to undergo rapid intensification and become more powerful hurricanes.
The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data, accessible to researchers and weather agencies worldwide, provides the National Hurricane Center with critical insights beneath the surface of storms — unlike other satellites that observe only "at the cloud-top level," explained retired NOAA meteorologist Alan Gerard.
Data from the defense satellites have enabled forecasters to identify storms undergoing eyewall replacement—a process akin to a snake shedding its skin. During this transition, storms may temporarily weaken even as their overall size expands.
“That is an important process, to know that is happening,” Gerard said. “It stops the rapid intensification. It puts the brake on.”
After completing the eyewall replacement process, the storm’s intensification may accelerate once more.
The equipment used in the military satellite program—which first launched a satellite in 1962—is approaching the end of its operational lifespan. Although the Navy began deploying a replacement weather satellite earlier this year, it remains uncertain whether federal forecasters will have access to its data.
Military officials declined to provide a comment when contacted.
In a statement released Friday, NOAA Communications Director Kim Doster emphasized that military satellite data represents only one component of a comprehensive array of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools. She noted that storm models continue to incorporate information from various satellite systems as well as NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft, along with other data sources.
“NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,” Doster said.
According to James Franklin, a forecaster who retired from the National Hurricane Center in 2017, nothing referenced in NOAA's response can substitute for the sensors that are being removed.
“When the data flow stops, the availability to see through clouds at the inner structure and organization of a tropical cyclone will be negatively affected,” he said. That will delay rapid intensification forecasts as meteorologists spend more time looking for other visual clues.
“It is going to be harder and it is going to take longer for the forecasts,” Franklin said.
