The market euphoria can lead to poor decision-making, where investors ignore fundamental analysis and chase momentum

In this heated stock market, take great care to differentiate between the ‘monkeys’ and the ‘goats’ in your portfolio They may overlook company financials or governance red flags, blinded by the allure of quick gains. Moreover, even mediocre companies stock prices soar during these times, creating a false sense of security

Dhirendra Kumar

Dhirendra Kumar

CEO, Value Research

Do you remember the equity markets towards the end of 2007? The Sensex had been up about five times over the previous five years and there was madness in the air. There seemed to be no end to how high and how fast stocks could rise. We all remember how it ended, but that’s not the point I’m trying to make. The point is not what happened to the markets when they crashed, but to individual companies when they recovered.

Whenever the markets rise as they did then, they eventually crash. It was inevitable then, and it’s inevitable now. There may be some doubt about when it will happen and by how much, but it will definitely happen. To a seasoned equity investor, this is nothing unexpected. Ups and downs are a part of the game.

The part that few investors appreciate is that these are dangerous times. Over the next few years, when the dust settles in the next market cycle, you will find that these weren’t great times as far as buying stocks was concerned. You might think I’m saying this because during bull runs valuations are high and stocks are expensive. You would be right, but that’s not the only reason. The biggest reason is psychological. When anything you buy makes money, the constant scepticism that investors need disappears from their minds.

This euphoria can lead to poor decision-making, where investors ignore fundamental analysis and chase momentum. They may overlook company financials or governance red flags, blinded by the allure of quick gains. Moreover, even mediocre companies’ stock prices soar during these times, creating a false sense of security. It’s crucial to remember that when the tide eventually turns, the quality of the underlying business, not just the market sentiment, will determine which stocks survive and thrive.

In 2007, just before the market’s peak, I wrote a newspaper column with this amusing story: ‘One day, a man appeared in a village and offered to buy all the monkeys that the villagers could supply for Rs.1,000 each. The villagers caught all the monkeys and sold them. Soon, another man appeared and offered Rs.2,000 for each monkey. However, there weren’t any more monkeys around, so the villagers couldn’t sell any to the man. However, they figured that, for some reason, the demand for monkeys was going up, so they looked for the first man and bought back all the monkeys for Rs.3,000 each, which was the least the man was willing to take. Unfortunately, this stratagem failed, and the buyer never reappeared, leaving the villagers stuck with the animals.
Growfast
  • Digital Personal Data Protection Act 2023

    Legal

    Digital Personal Data Protection Act 2023

    By - Gaurav Khera, Partner, Risk Advisory: Deloitte

  • Modern Marketing Masterclass by Seth Godin

    Marketing

    Modern Marketing Masterclass by Seth Godin

    By - Seth Godin, Best-selling author

  • A2Z Of Finance: Finance Beginner Course

    Finance

    A2Z Of Finance: Finance Beginner Course

    By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge

  • Data Privacy with General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)

    Legal

    Data Privacy with General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)

    By - Arun S. Prabhu, Partner (Head- Technology and Telecommunications): Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas

  • Labour Laws

    Legal

    Labour Laws

    By - Ankita Ray, Partner: Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas

  • Financial Reporting and Analytics

    Finance

    Financial Reporting and Analytics

    By - Dr. C.P. Gupta, Professor: Department of Finance and Business Economics, University of Delhi

  • Mastering C++ Fundamentals with Generative AI: A Hands-On

    Artificial Intelligence(AI)

    Mastering C++ Fundamentals with Generative AI: A Hands-On

    By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, Developer and Lead Instructor

  • Mastering Microsoft Office: Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and 365

    Office Productivity

    Mastering Microsoft Office: Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and 365

    By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, Developer and Lead Instructor

  • A Comprehensive ASP.NET Core MVC 6 Project Guide for 2024

    Web Development

    A Comprehensive ASP.NET Core MVC 6 Project Guide for 2024

    By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, Developer and Lead Instructor

  • AI and Analytics based Business Strategy

    Artificial Intelligence(AI)

    AI and Analytics based Business Strategy

    By - Tanusree De, Managing Director- Accenture Technology Lead, Trustworthy AI Center of Excellence: ATCI

  • AI for Everyone: Understanding and Applying the Basics on Artificial Intelligence

    Artificial Intelligence(AI)

    AI for Everyone: Understanding and Applying the Basics on Artificial Intelligence

    By - Ritesh Vajariya, Generative AI Expert

  • Vastu Shastra Course

    Astrology

    Vastu Shastra Course

    By - Sachenkumar Rai, Vastu Shashtri

  • Financial Literacy i.e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code

    Finance

    Financial Literacy i.e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code

    By - CA Rahul Gupta, CA with 10+ years of domain experience, trainer

  • Digital marketing - Wordpress Website Development

    Marketing

    Digital marketing - Wordpress Website Development

    By - Shraddha Somani, Digital Marketing Trainer, Consultant, Strategiest and Subject Matter expert

  • Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide 2024

    Office Productivity

    Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide 2024

    By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, Developer and Lead Instructor

  • Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel

    Marketing

    Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel

    By - Neil Patel, Co-Founder and Author at Neil Patel Digital Digital Marketing Guru

  • Budget Analysis, Forecasting & Control

    Finance

    Budget Analysis, Forecasting & Control

    By - Mandar V. Joshi, Partner and Head of Technology Implementation, Management Consulting: KPMG

  • Java Programming with ChatGPT: Learn using Generative AI

    Artificial Intelligence(AI)

    Java Programming with ChatGPT: Learn using Generative AI

    By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, Developer and Lead Instructor

  • Master in Python Language Quickly Using the ChatGPT Open AI

    Artificial Intelligence(AI)

    Master in Python Language Quickly Using the ChatGPT Open AI

    By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, Developer and Lead Instructor

  • A2Z Of Money

    Finance

    A2Z Of Money

    By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge

  • ESG and Business Sustainability Strategy

    Strategy

    ESG and Business Sustainability Strategy

    By - Vipul Arora, Partner, ESG & Climate Solutions at Sattva Consulting Author I Speaker I Thought Leader

  • Generative AI for Dynamic Java Web Applications with ChatGPT

    Artificial Intelligence(AI)

    Generative AI for Dynamic Java Web Applications with ChatGPT

    By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, Developer and Lead Instructor


    Nearby, there was another village, where the same story was repeated, except it was about goats. The final buyer also never appeared, and the villagers were stuck with goats. However, there was a big difference. The monkeys were a nuisance. They were noisy, troublesome and dangerous, and they stole food all the time. So the villagers eventually abandoned them in the forest. The goats, however, were easy to keep, grazed on grass and provided milk. When they grew older, the villagers slaughtered them for meat. All in all, buying goats was not as bad a deal as it seemed initially.’

    For investors in today’s raging bull market, the moral of the story should be obvious. In this heated market, take great care to differentiate between the ‘monkeys’ and the ‘goats’ in your portfolio. The ‘monkeys’ are the speculative stocks, hyped up by market sentiment, but lacking fundamental value. When the market inevitably corrects, these stocks may prove to be not just worthless, but actively detrimental to your financial health. The ‘goats’, on the other hand, represent companies with solid fundamentals, strong business models, and the ability to generate real value over time.

    The goats are expensive, too, but at least they will deliver value even after the buyers disappear.

    (The author is CEO, VALUE RESEARCH.)

    (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)

    This story originally appeared on: India Times - Author:Faqs of Insurances